market Recap, October 24, 2025: A night of upheaval, a swift shift to bull market
the pessimism that enveloped the markets just 12 hours ago is a lie. in the early hours of October 24, 2025, the crypto markets took a dramatic turn, turning investor sentiment on its head. While yesterday was dominated by negative keywords like "support breakdown" and "ETF outflows," two huge geopolitical and political events overnight changed the game.
as of Ubit, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $165.3 million, up +1.32% from the previous day, having strongly broken through the key psychological resistance level of $160 million. on the Binance futures market, BTC is also up +2.48% to trade at $109,759.6, attesting to the strong buying interest across global markets. Binance's BNB coin, which has been the catalyst for this move, is up a phenomenal +5.22%.
this dramatic shift can be seen more clearly by looking at the sentiment change over the past 24 hours.
sentiment change over time (buy recommendation score)
hourbuy Recommendation Scorekey Takeaways oct 23, 2025 19:36 -1.27 sell side: Focus on negatives: short-term losses, mining debt, etc 23 Oct 2025 23:43 -0.28 neutral Shift: Positive factors emerge, including refutation of crash rumors 2025-10-24 02:41 +1.86 buy signal: Trump pardon possibility, BTC price breakout favorable 2025-10-24 05:36 +4.14 strong Buy: CZ pardon, US-China talks, ETFs, and more focus on bullish news 2025-10-24 06:45 +1.22 pause: conservative buying sentiment remains after digesting strong news
as you can see in the table above, the market made a sharp transition from deep pessimism (-1.27) to strong optimism (+4.14) in just a few hours, and now we're in a "breathing space" (+1.22) as the market finds a new equilibrium after the explosive gains.
fundamental analysis: Two huge news stories shake up the market
this rally is not just a technical bounce, but a powerful fundamental shift that could change the fundamental makeup of the market.
trump's 'act of God': the ripple effect of the Zhao Changpeng (CZ) pardon
in the early hours of the morning, breaking news hit the market: "Trump pardons Binance founder Zhao Changpeng," "Trump pardons CZ in sweeping move...'victim of repression'". The news sent the price of Binance's native coin, BNB, surging over 5% in an instant, providing a powerful upward momentum for the entire market.
the implications of this event go beyond simply de-risking one individual or company. it's a significant sign of a shifting political tide toward the crypto industry in the world's largest economy. Regulatory uncertainty and political risk have been the biggest shackles on the crypto market, especially for conservative institutional investors such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds.
but when a powerful politician uses the highest executive power to pardon an iconic figure in the crypto space, it dramatically raises expectations for pro-crypto policies going forward. beyond the short-term good news, the market has begun to price in the long-term value of crypto being recognized as an institutional asset in the U.S. and a significant reduction in political risk - the most powerful fundamental improvement that could trigger the next round of institutional inflows.
geopolitical risk off: How the US-China summit impacted risk assets
The news of the "White House confirms Trump-Xi Jinping summit", which broke almost simultaneously with the CZ pardon, fueled a relief rally not only in the crypto market, but also across global financial markets, as headlines like "NYSE closes higher on Trump-Xi Jinping meeting hopes" showed.
the easing of the US-China conflict is a classic "risk-on" signal. less uncertainty in the global economy encourages investors to move away from safe-haven assets like the dollar and toward equities and assets with high growth potential like Bitcoin. a news headline that reads "US Risky Assets 'Energized'...NYSE 'Rising', BTC-Altcoins 'Wide Open'" accurately summarizes the current situation. it's proof that the crypto market is no longer an isolated island, but a mature asset class that moves in sync with global macroeconomic trends.
other good news and signs of ecosystem expansion
in addition to these two big news, there was a string of other news that supported the positive sentiment in the market: "Hong Kong approves Solana spot ETF," which demonstrates the steady expansion of institutional inclusion in Asian markets. this was a direct driver of Solana (SOL)'s +4.28% upbeat move, while news like "Qualigen Partners with BitGo to Manage $30M in Crypto Assets" suggests that behind the big discourse, real market participation and infrastructure building by institutions continues.
technical Analysis: What the Charts Say About the Present and Future
bitcoin (BTC) deep dive: What the $165K milestone means for the crypto market
bitcoin is currently stabilizing around $109,759.6 ($165.3 million upbeat) after hitting a 24-hour high of $111,240 ($167.5 million upbeat). this suggests that the price is in the process of breaking through the $110,000 level, which was a strong resistance level, and establishing that price level as a new support level.
moving Averages: This surge has very likely placed the price firmly above the shorter-term moving averages, such as the 5-day and 20-day, as well as the longer-term 200-day moving average. a "golden cross" has recently occurred or is likely imminent, where the 50-day moving average breaks above the 200-day moving average, a classic sign of the start of a long-term bullish trend.
relative Strength Index (RSI): due to the short-term surge, the RSI indicator is likely to have entered the "overbought" zone above 70, which suggests a short-term correction or sideways movement is possible, but also indicates strong upward momentum.
MACD: The MACD line has broken above the signal line and the histogram has turned positive (+) and is clearly widening. this indicates a strengthening uptrend with strong buyer inflows.
bollinger Bands: the price has shown a typical bull market pattern, with the price riding the top of the Bollinger Bands. The width of the bands is also widening, reflecting the recent increase in volatility.
key altcoin trends: BNB's dominance and Solana's rise
the behavior of altcoins in this bull market has a clear narrative. BNB surged +5.22% on the direct good news of the CZ pardon, delivering "alpha" returns that significantly outperformed the market. solana also posted a strong +4.28% gain on its own good news of Hong Kong ETF approval, while Ethereum (ETH) was a 'beta' asset that faithfully followed Bitcoin's movements, rising +2.50%.
market heretic: the unusual weakness of Tron (TRX)
amidst the market's general euphoria, Tron (TRX) showed unusual weakness, falling -1.67% on Binance and -3.07% on Upbit - an important clue that the market is not simply being driven by liquidity, but is shifting money to assets with clear narratives and fundamentals. it's likely that investors are selling assets that don't currently have a clear upside story, such as Tron, and using the funds to buy assets that do, such as BNB or Solana, which have a strong narrative, suggesting that even in a bull market, the chasing of the jade stone continues.
derivatives markets and investor sentiment: the movement of the invisible hand
the Funding Rate Paradox: A Healthy Rise or a Sign of Overheating?
the current funding rates in derivatives markets paint a very interesting picture.
typically, when prices surge, funding rates spike to positive numbers due to leveraged investors betting on long (buy) positions. However, the fact that the market leader, Bitcoin, has a rather negligible negative funding rate (-0.0002%) strongly suggests that this is not a leveraged, speculative rise, but a "healthy rise" driven by real buying on spot exchanges like Upbit. when short (selling) positions are paying interest to long positions, it's evidence that strong spot buying pressure is pushing the market higher.
on the other hand, the high positive funding rates of +0.0100% seen in some altcoins, such as Ethereum Classic (ETC) and Chainlink (LINK), indicate that speculative leveraged funds are flowing into these assets looking for short-term profits. taken together, the current market is a dual structure, with a stable spot-driven rise in Bitcoin and leverage-driven speculation in some altcoins.
analyzing the Kimchi Premium and investor sentiment
calculating the Kimchi Premium, which represents the difference between domestic and international prices, reveals some surprising findings.
bTC price on Binance: $109,759.6
upbit USDT (Tether) price: $1,506
upbit BTC price: 165,300,000 won
upbit BTC price in dollars: $165,300,000 \div 1,506 \approx \$109,760.95$
kimchi Premium: $(\$109,760.95 / \$109,759.6) - 1 \approx 0.001\%$
the kimchi premium is effectively 0%, which means that the market is not being driven by the irrational "FOMO" of domestic retail investors as in past bull markets. rather, the current rally is a rational, consolidated move that is occurring globally and not localized to any particular region. This is a very positive sign for the sustainability of the rally and suggests that there is still room for further gains if domestic investor sentiment really catches fire.
extrapolating from the options market and the Fear-Greed Index
the news that "BTC options openings peak, traders at war" suggests high participation in the current market and the potential for increased volatility in the future. the surge in options open interest suggests that strong bets on the future price direction are clashing furiously on both the upside and the downside. In addition, the Fear & Greed Index, which until yesterday would have been stuck in the "fear" or "neutral" phase, has probably moved sharply to the "greed" or "extreme greed" phase due to this spike.
overall outlook and investment strategy: balancing opportunity and risk
short-Term Outlook
after the explosive rally, we are likely to see a short-term consolidation and breathing room. the market needs time to digest the implications of two huge news stories.
key support levels: $165,000on Ubit and $109,000on Binance will act as new critical support levels. A steady move above these price levels will increase expectations for further gains.
near-termresistance: The immediate high of $111,240 is the first resistance level.
moreover, the fact that Bitcoin's funding cost is negative is a positive factor, suggesting that a sharp price crash due to leveraged liquidations is unlikely in the near term.
mid-to-Long-Term Outlook
market fundamentals have improved qualitatively. reduced political risk in the US and continued institutionalization represented by the approval of the Hong Kong Solana ETF are solid foundations for a mid- to long-term bull market. specific policy announcements from a pro-crypto administration and additional ETF approvals in other countries are potential catalysts to take the market to the next level.
key Risk Factors
sell the News: be on the lookout for price peaks and profit-taking selling when favorable news is announced. the slight dip in the Buy recommendation score (+1.22) from its peak (+4.14) may be a reflection of this sentiment.
potential Security Threats: As the "North Korean Hackers Reveal Shocking Scope of Hacking" news reminds us, the underlying security risks in the market have not gone away. At any moment, a related headline could derail the market.
macroeconomic variables: while the US-China summit created a positive tone, risk appetite could quickly diminish in the event of a breakdown in talks or an unexpected global economic crisis.
altcoin leverage risk: Excessive leverage built up in some altcoins could trigger a cascade of liquidations and increase market-wide volatility if Bitcoin suffers a minor correction.
conclusion and strategy suggestions
the cryptocurrency market is currently in a healthy uptrend, driven by clear fundamental improvements. It is a dynamic market, with Bitcoin's spot-led rise at the center of the market, and active speculative activity in some altcoins.
spot investors: the "Buy the Dip" strategy of buying on the dip in a correction looks valid. we recommend steadily increasing the allocation to Bitcoin and Ethereum as the core assets in your portfolio.
short-term traders: highly leveraged investments in altcoins with high funding costs require extreme caution. after taking some profits on short-term spikes, a cautious approach is required, looking for re-entry opportunities at key support levels.
asset allocation: Interest in assets with a clear bullish narrative, such as BNB and Solana, is valid, but be aware of high volatility, while it is prudent to maintain a conservative view on assets without a clear catalyst, such as Tron.