as of November 22nd, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at KRW 128.67 million (≈87,566 USD) on Upbit, representing a kimchi premium of approximately +2.5% over the Binance futures price (USD 85,436). ethereum (ETH) is trading at 4.17 million won (≈2,843 USD, +2.4% premium), Solana (SOL) is trading at 194,100 won (≈132.0 USD, +2.25%), and other major altcoins such as Dogecoin (DOGE) and Ada (ADA) are also maintaining Kimchi premiums in the 2-3% range, meaning that domestic transaction prices are slightly higher than the global average, indicating continued domestic demand.
on the Upbit market, Bitcoin is up slightly +0.49%, Dogecoin is up +0.95%, and Solana and Ethereum are also up +0.36%, while Ripple (XRP) and Ada (ADA) are slightly weaker at -0.03% and -0.16%, respectively. overall, trading volumes remained high amidst mixed results among altcoins, with most of the market's top coins by market capitalization holding onto gains.
as such, the Kimchi Premium remained stable at around +2%, indicating the relative strength of the Korean market even in the recent global bear market. however, with major issues in the global market (such as diminishing expectations of a US interest rate cut and volatility in global equity markets), the overall selling pressure remains, so caution is advised.
date & Time (KST) coin Buy Recommendation Score dec 21, 2020 11:48 -5.92 ž×-×-ר×-ת 2025-11-21 23:44 -3.02 2025-11-22 00:51 -0.99 2025-11-22 01:47 -2.87 2025-11-22 02:48 -2.87 2025-11-22 03:44 -2.62 2025-11-22 04:46 -2.62 2025-11-22 05:40 -2.62 2025-11-22 06:46 -2.62 2025-11-22 07:39 -2.35 2025-11-22 08:42 -4.61
the table above shows the trend of cryptocurrency buy recommendation scores over the last 24 hours. most of the scores are negative, ranging from -1 to -5, with a particularly large drop (-5 to -3) from the night of November 21 to the early morning hours of November 22, reflecting the dominance of strong headlines, including a series of price plunges and news of large-scale liquidations. currently, the composite score is at -4.61, suggesting that it is still a conservative environment where we recommend a wait-and-see rather than a buy.
technical analysis
trend: Bitcoin price is trading below key moving averages (50-day-200-day) and remains in a long-term downtrend, with the $85,000 level in particular acting as a key psychological resistance/support zone. the current price (≈87,500 USD) is below the 50-day moving average, which poses the risk of further downside, but conversely, the $80,000 level can be seen as support that could attract medium- to long-term buying sentiment.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): the short-term RSI is already in oversold territory (below 30), showing some signs of a slight bounce, but caution is warranted as it could be a simple bounce without sustained volume. If the RSI remains oversold and the price remains in a downtrend, a technical bounce may occur at some point.
MACD: The MACD indicator has not yet broken out of negative territory and is maintaining its downward momentum. a dead cross (the opposite of a golden cross) between the signal line and the MACD line has been observed in the past, and the histogram is still negative, indicating a continued short-term sellers' advantage.
bollingerBands: The price is trading near the lower lineof the Bollinger Bands. staying at the bottom while the band is widening indicates an oversold situation. support at the bottom of the band could be a watershed moment for a medium-term upside reversal, but a break above the top of the band would still not confirm strong upward momentum.
volume: While volume spiked during the price decline, indicating strong selling pressure, volume has declined during the recent bounce. The decline in volume suggests weak short-term rebound momentum. on the other hand, the concentration of trading at previous selling levels could indicate further downside potential.
overall, the technical indicators show a short-term oversold condition with no clear bounce signal. if the price drops below $80,000, the risk of a trend reversal increases, so keep an eye out for a breakout. Conversely, patterns such as failed attempts to recover above $90,000 are still valid.
on-chain and sentiment indicators
Crypto Fear & Greed Index (Fear & Greed Index): recent index readings have been around 10-15, which is in the extreme "fear" zone. these readings indicate an extreme contraction in investor sentiment, and caution should be exercised in determining when to buy. the last time the value was this low was during a crash similar to the start of the year 2025.
funding Rate: the funding rate in the futures market has been slightly negative (-) across the board recently. this suggests that short (sell) positions are relatively dominant, meaning that the cost of a short bet is slightly higher, suggesting that short position holders are paying the longs to fund them. if the funding cost is significantly negative, it indicates that the short side is overheated, which may be a condition for a future rebound.
options Open Interest and Put/Call Ratio: Overall openinterest has decreased somewhat due to the recent streak of liquidations. However, in certain sectors,open interest has shifted higher, most notably put/call ratios above 1 as volatility increases, suggesting investors are bracing for a pullback. A Put/Call > 1 situation indicates that demand for downside insurance (put options) has risen, which means that market participants are still preparing for downside risk.
leveraged position trends: the data shows that long positions (long bets) are being liquidated in large numbersin recent days, and conversely, the percentage of short positionsis increasing. this reflects the rising volatility in the market and the dominance of bearish bets. in both the Bitcoin and altcoin futures markets, leveraged liquidations have been very large (in the billions of dollars), indicating that the selling pressure has escalated further. for example, in less than 24 hours, approximately $134 billion worth of leveraged positions were liquidated, with the market capitalization declining by more than $2 billion, indicating a strong sell-off.
taken together, both on-chain and sentiment indicators point to extreme fear. while the market is now ripe for a technical bounce, the fundamental and psychological uncertainties are far from resolved, and downside risk management rather than aggressive buying is warranted at this time.
fundamental analysis
from a fundamental perspective, the main drivers of the current bear market include weakening US rate cut expectations, Fed credibility issues, large sellers (such as BlackRock), and the spread of block deals and liquidations. recent news reports have included dramatic headlines such as "Bitcoin plunges 30% in a month," "billions in massive liquidations," and "ETF outflows," and the market has been weighed down by sell-side opinions from investment professionals and institutional withdrawals.
on the positive side, there are some good news stories. for example, in South Korea, the need for a card company-led KRW stablecoin has emerged, news of a bargain-basement buying strategy by some institutions such as Bill Gates' electric car company, the acquisition of a Solana-based decentralized exchange (Coinbase), and the integration of PayPal and Binance e-wallets. In addition, the launch of a global coin exchange-traded fund (ETF) and news of advancements in Ethereum technology may support the market's fundamentals in the long run. However, at the moment, the downward pressure far outweighs the positives, and a market downturn is likelyfrom a fundamental perspective.
future outlook and strategy
short-term outlook: Given the current oversold indicators and the presence of short-term technical support (around $80,000), a bounce attempt is possible. in fact, when the Fear-Greed Index reaches extreme fear levels, a technical bounce is often seen after a bottom is confirmed. however, we need a clear turning point in key issues (US interest rates, ETF money flows, big buying) for the bulls to continue, and we should approach this with the possibility of a sideways/correction rather than a move higher for the time being.
technical response: As a conservative strategy, it makes sense to minimize position entry andmanage downside risk at this point. if you take a long view, you can consider buying in partial installments around $80,000-$82,000. conversely, you should have a clear stop-loss target in case the price drops significantly. Right now, it's more important to see if $80,000 is not broken than to recover $90,000.
medium to long-term outlook: the 2025 bitcoin halving (typically a four-year cycle) is coming up, and there are expectations of a long-term supply reduction. institutional acceptance of cryptocurrencies is also increasingly likely, so once the current bear market passes, it could be a buying opportunity in the long term. It is important to continue to monitor technical and fundamental indicators, especially to take advantage of buying opportunities at the lows.
monitor sentiment and news: The crypto market is sensitive to news and sentiment changes, so keep an eye on the Fear and Greed Index, news of large-scale liquidations, and sharp changes in funding rates. For example, a shift in the Crypto F&G Index to 'Neutral' could be seen as a rebound opportunity. given that investor sentiment is extremely cool right now, a large bounce could be accompanied by institutional short covering and retail buying.
finally, there is also room to capitalize on the Kimchi premium. With the local price currently around 2% higher than the international price, there are limited short-term trading strategies that take advantage of the exchange rate. buying coins overseas and importing them at a lower price may be attractive, but you should consider the risk of price fluctuations and fees.
in conclusion, the cryptocurrency market is currently in a strong downtrend and a wait-and-see or partial buying strategy is appropriate rather than aggressive longs. with technical indicators and market sentiment overly bearish, there may be opportunities to buy lows in the medium term, but be prepared for further corrections in the short term. a combination of technical analysis, on-chain indicators, and changes in the Kimchi premium should be taken into consideration.