the cryptocurrency market has been experiencing an unusual trend lately, with prices falling on global exchanges (Binance) and rising slightly on local exchanges (Ubit). as of 9:00 am on November 15, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $144.29 million (+0.47%) on Ubit, while Ethereum (ETH) was up to $4.75 million (+0.78%). On the Binance futures market, BTC was trading at $95,160.08 (-4.14%) to $95,160.08, the lowest in the last six months. This has led to a widening of the Kimchi premium to an average of around 3.8-4.2%, with BTC at around +3.8%, ETH at +4.2%, and XRP and SOL at +3.5% and +4.1% respectively. this divergence reflects stronger domestic demand compared to overseas, indicating that domestic investors are still buying. major altcoins (ADA, LINK, etc.) have also seen modest gains on Upbit, while global prices continue to weaken overall, with ZEC (Zcash) standing out on Binance with a +18.87% surge.
market breakdownlatest Buy Recommendation Scorecryptocurrencies (as of Ubit) -4.38 (Extreme downtrend, not recommended to buy)
stock markets -0.42 (bearish, wait-and-see recommendation)
the table above shows the latest market buy recommendation scores. the coin buy recommendation score is very negative at -4.38, reflecting that the short-term market sentiment is in the extreme fear phase. the stock market score is also -0.42, indicating a bearish trend.
technical analysis
RSI (Relative Strength Index): bitcoin is in an oversold zonewith an RSI below 30 in the short-term, which is a sign of overly skewed selling and could signal a short-term bounce, but the risk of further declines cannot be ruled out.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence indicator): The MACD indicator has recently shown a reversal sell signal, with a significant drop below the signal line. the long MACD, which reflects the longer-term trend, is also falling, adding to the downward momentum.
bollinger Bands: Price is currently well below the bottom of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that the bands are stretched, suggesting high volatility. a break below the bottom of the band is usually interpreted as a short-term bottom signal, but given the extremely high levels of market volatility, a conservative approach is warranted.
moving averages: Bitcoin price is below its short-term (20-day) and medium-term (50-day) moving averages, and the 200-day moving average is also threatened. with news of a breakdown of the 365-day (1-year) moving average, it appears that all major support levels have been broken, which favors a medium- to long-term downtrend over a short-term technical bounce.
on the technical analysis front, Bitcoin has entered oversold territory, but there are no clear signs of a turnaround. the current chart shows a parabolic downtrend near resistance, and both the RSI and MACD are showing similar patterns to those seen during past bear markets. Therefore, any short-term bounce should be watched for a break above key resistance levels (such as the recovery of the 20- and 50-day moving averages, which were previous support).
fundamental analysis and market sentiment
key global economic indicators and policy and regulatory developments are also influencing the market. recently, investors have become increasingly wary of risky assets as expectations of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve have diminished. in fact, Bitcoin has fallen to a six-month low in sync with a sharp decline in the US Nasdaq, with several analysts recently referring to a "panic cell" pattern. Furthermore, selling pressureprevails across markets despite positive ETF-related news. meanwhile, cross-reporting of short-term bad news, such as rumors about Elon Musk and news about Grant Cardon's fund, has caused market sentiment to tilt sharply below neutral.
from an individual coin perspective, the majors, including Bitcoin, may be entering a bottoming phase, but it's not yet time to buy. On the other hand, events like the anticipated Ethereum ETF and the Ripple ETF debut could provide some support. for example, we're interested to see if the XRP ETF debut will lead to record inflows and energize the altcoin market. However, most investors are currently stuck in the extreme fear (Fear & Greed Index) zone, so a conservative approach is recommended in the short term.
on-chain and derivatives indicators
crypto Fear & Greed Index: The index is currently near its lowest (extreme fear) level. this means that investor fear is extremely high, with extreme selling. historically, points of extreme fear can signal a short-term bottom, but it is difficult to predict when this will be.
funding Rate: in the Bitcoin futures market, the funding rate has recently turned negative, indicating a dominance of short (sell) positions, meaning that more traders are betting downward and paying funding fees to long positions hoping for a rise. this shows that the sentiment in the market is negative.
options Open Interest and Put/Call Ratio: In the context of spiking volatility, we observe that total options openinterest is rising. In particular, the Put/Call ratio is above 1.0, indicating stronger put buying, which means that downside bets have expanded. investors are increasing their exposure to put options (downside insurance) against downside risk.
long/Short Leveraged Position Trends: Recent weeks have seen massive liquidations of long term holders (LTH) and leveraged long positions. binance liquidation data shows that the liquidation of long positions has surged, while short positions have remained stable, indicating that excess long positions have been cleaned out in the short term, but suggesting that short (selling) pressure is likely to prevail for the time being.
taken together, these on-chain and derivatives flows indicate that the crypto market is currently extremely subdued in terms of investor sentiment and risk appetite. further corrections are likely in the near term as 'fear' persists, but conversely, some inflection points could create room for a rebound. funding ratios, put/call ratios, and extreme fear indices are good indicators of when to buy, but for now, a conservativewait-and-see approach seems to be in favor.
upside/downside leverage and sentiment
it's also noteworthy that the long/short ratiohas changed in the market recently. as the price of Bitcoin has fallen, there has been a large liquidation of long positions and a relative increase in short positions. This leveraged positioning trend reflects the dominance of shorts in the crypto derivatives market. for example, a negative Bitcoin funding rate implies a large number of short positions, indicating that market participants are expecting further declines. in addition, new entrants to the market are refraining from buying and selling due to the increased volatility.
in terms of investor sentiment, the crypto fear-greedindex is currently at a very low level, and the futures market is seeing some movement of funds into safe-haven assets (USD-based stablecoins). overall, there is more wait-and-see and capital protection sentiment than new buying. however, this extreme fear could turn into a buying opportunity at some point, so it's best to stay calm and wait for a market bottom to form.
outlook and investment strategy
at this point, the cryptocurrency market is facing a number of uncertainties. interest rate volatility, weak economic data, and global regulatory concerns are combining to reinforce the short-term downtrend. there are no clear buy signals from a technical analysis perspective, so a cautious wait-and-see and risk managementis recommended at this point.
nevertheless, it is worth preparing for a possible bottom in the medium to long term. failure to reclaim key support levels (such as $110,000, or around $1.70 billion in KRW) could lead to a further correction, but on the flip side, a prolonged breakout could lead to institutional and long-term holder buying. given that fear is currently at an all-time high, it's a good idea to plan for a split buy in case a strong rebound comes later.
short-term strategy: Bitcoin and Ethereum are in a strong downtrend, but pay attention to technical rebound signals, such as RSI oversold zones and Bollinger bottom breakouts. on the upside, watch for a breakout above key moving averages (20-day and 50-day), and it's safe to not add significantly to your allocation until there's a clear turn to the upside.
medium- to long-term strategy: wait for market sentiment and the macro environment to stabilize, and buy assets with long-term growth momentum (Bitcoin, Ethereum, and some promising altcoins) at the lows, especially if foreign deregulation or blockchain innovation issues emerge.
finally, keep an eye on the kimchi premium situation. a high premium, currently in the 3-4% range, is a sign of strong domestic demand, which should be monitored along with changes in the exchange rate. a sharp drop in the premium should be interpreted as a sign that domestic buying has fizzled out, while the opposite is true if it remains stable, indicating that domestic investor sentiment is relatively robust.
summary: While the global crypto market is currently dominated by bears, the local Upbit market is slightly higher and the Kimchi premium is widening. technical indicators are oversold, but there are no clear signs of a rebound. On-chain and derivative indicators are pointing to an extreme panic phase, and short-term selling pressure is strong. Therefore, a cautious wait-and-see is warranted for now, but a mid- to long-term split-buy strategy is advisable for when the market has fully recovered from panic and a rebound is more likely.