will Tesla's full self-driving (FSD) ever happen? after nine years of Elon Musk's promises, a string of lawsuits, and the rise of rival Waymo, we take a deep dive into the future of robotaxis and the investment outlook.

"In the near future, Tesla cars will drive themselves, and they will make money while you sleep."

nine years ago, Elon Musk's visionof Tesla's self-driving cars was enough to get the world excited: the cars already had all the hardware to drive themselves, and a software update would turn the dream into a reality. But nine years later, that promise is being tested in court. isTesla's fully autonomousfuture a realistic possibility, or was it just a wild exaggeration?

elon Musk has been called an "icon of innovation," but when it comes to autonomous driving, it's hard to escape the criticism of being a "sheeple boy." He vowed to demonstrate fully autonomous driving from LA to New York without driver intervention by the end of 2017. in 2019, he went a step further and promised to put one millionrobotaxison the road by 2020.

but the reality was brutal. as of 2024, Tesla's self-driving technology is still at the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) level of "Level 2," which requires constant human supervision. Despite the name "Full Self-Driving" (FSD), it's still no more than a driver assistance system.

in the end, this 'unfulfilled promise' has become a boomerang. in 2019, a court found Tesla 33% liable for an autopilot-related fatality, a class action lawsuit was certified in California for misleading people about FSD features, and the French government even orderedTesla to stop advertising itsfull autonomy, calling the claims "deceptive. musk's statements, once thought of as the "bluster and hyperbole" of the tech industry, are now a reality that he can be held legally accountable for.

while Elon Musk and Tesla have been loudly promising the future, Google's subsidiary Waymo has been quietly and overwhelmingly forging ahead. Today, Waymo operates afully driverless robotaxi for-hire service in five major U.S. cities, including Phoenix and San Francisco, with a fleet of more than 1,500 vehicles. the driver's seats are empty, and the only passengers are on board.

this pales in comparison to Tesla, which has just begun testing with a dozen cars in Austin, Texas, with a safety officer on board, and only for influencers. the technology gap is even clearer. weimo's self-driving technology is rated as "Level 4," meaning "conditionally fully autonomous," while Tesla's is still "Level 2.

this difference stems from the philosophy of the technology. tesla insists on a "vision-only" approach, using only cameras to perceive the world, just like the human eye. waymo, on the other hand, uses cameras, radar, and even expensive lidar sensors to get a precise 360-degree view of its surroundings, combined with ultra-precise HD maps for maximum reliability. based on the results so far, the winner on the road is definitely Waymo.

recently,Elon Muskpulled out therobo-taxi card once again: "Tesla owners will be able to register their cars in the app when they're not using them, and the cars will drive around and make money for themselves, like Airbnb," he said, tantalizing investors with the prospect of $30,000 a year in extra income.

the backdrop to these comments is the crisis Tesla is in:Elon Musk'santics and political antics have tarnished the brand's image, and sales have plummeted in key markets like Europe. in the second quarter of 2025, global sales dropped 13%, marking the first time in 12 years that the company experienced negative growth.

against this backdrop,robotaxisare seen as a "godsend" that could turn Tesla's fortunes around. even if consumers don't buy cars, arobotaxipowered byTesla's self-driving technology could create new demand and revalue the company. It's a declaration thatTeslais moving beyond being just a car maker to becoming an AI technology platform company, which is at the heart ofTesla's investment outlook.

beyond the technical challenges, there is a huge barrier toTesla's path tofull autonomy androbotaxi commercialization. this is the issue of liability in the event of an accident.

under current law, the driver is solely responsible for accidents involving Tesla Autopilot, which is a Level 2 technology. but at levels 3 and 4, where the technology becomes more sophisticated and requires less driver intervention, the burden of liability shifts to the manufacturer. The court's recognition of some manufacturer liabilityin the Tesla self-driving lawsuitsignals the beginning of this shift.

no technology is perfect, and no self-driving car will ever have a zero probability of an accident.Withouta clear social and legal consensus on who should be liable in the event of an accident - the vehicle owner, the driver, the manufacturer, or the software developer - and how much, the road toTesla Level 5will be a bumpy one.

[Related: Electric vehicle subsidies, a roundup of the latest information for 2025]

conclusion: Tesla at the crossroads between innovation and responsibility

one-line summary: tesla's full autonomous driving is still stuck at Level 2 after nine years of promises, and faces big challenges in the form of legal liability and a technology gap with Waymo.

just as Elon Musk accelerated humanity's foray into space with SpaceX, he could usher in the era ofTesla autonomous driving with another breakthrough . but now the market is demanding accountability and tangible deliverables, not just promises. can Tesla rise to the occasion and become a true game changer in the autonomous driving market?

what do you think about Tesla'srobotaxis andthe future of autonomous driving? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.