at 8 a.m. on November 7, 2025, the cryptocurrency market was deeply shaken by the collapse of Bitcoin's $150 million mark, which had been considered a psychological and technical threshold. Over the past 24 hours, the market has been gripped by panic, which we analyze as the result of more than just a correction, but the exposure of the market's structural vulnerabilities.

based on Upbit and Binance price data as of 7am on November 7, this report provides an in-depth analysis of the macroeconomic factors, frozen investor sentiment, technical analysis, key on-chain data, and derivatives market flows driving the current market crash.

section 1: The state of the collapsed markets at 8am, November 7, 2025

1-1. Simultaneous analysis of UBIT and global markets (as of November 7, 07:00 KST)

the state of the market is devastating. on Ubit, Bitcoin (BTC) is down -3.19% from the previous day, trading at $15,103.9 million, breaking the $150 million mark. This is mirrored on the global market. based on Binance futures, Bitcoin was trading at $100,803.05 (-2.80%), confirming that the key support level of $100,000 has been broken.

altcoins are down even more. on Ubit, Ripple (XRP) plunged -6.58% to $3,281 and Dogecoin (DOGE) fell -3.98% to $241. ethereum (ETH) is also down -3.87% to $3,303.10 on Binance, with major altcoins leading the market's panic selling.

1-2. Prelude to the Crash: Top 3 Macroeconomic Factors Driving the Decline (Fundamental Analysis)

the cryptocurrency market crash is not an isolated event; it is the result of risk aversion across the global financial markets.

global stock market synchronization and 'AI bubble' fears

yesterday (November 6th), the US stock market saw a sharp decline in the tech-heavy Nasdaq and S&P 500.1 Big tech stocks, also known as the "Magnificent Seven," led the decline,1 and the domestic stock recommendation score was -0.78 (adjusted for global stocks), indicating a sharp risk-off by investors as fears of an "AI bubble burst" spread across the market.1 this decline perfectly aligns Bitcoin with the High-Beta Tech Asset rather than the 'Digital Gold Hedge'.

the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish stance

the decline in 'December rate cut' expectations that had been supporting the market was crucial.2 Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments that "a December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion"3 coupled with weak US unemployment data, led to concerns about continued high interest rates. as the expectation of liquidity supply disappeared, the valuations of risky assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies began to come under pressure simultaneously.

3, Institutional "betrayal": cashwood and BlackRock sell off

cracks appeared in the 'institution-led bull market' narrative, which had been a key bullish driver for the market. Cathie Wood, the 'big sister of the money tree', cut her Bitcoin price target by 20% and sold off in droves. To make matters worse, it was reported that BlackRock, a giant in the spot ETF market, also sold off KRW 90 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum.4 This is a very strong bearish signal that the market's 'smart money' has shifted its position from 'long' to 'short'.

these factors set off a chain reaction of 'AI Bubble Concerns' → 'Nasdaq Crash' → 'Global Risk-Off' → 'Bitcoin Falling Together' → 'ETF Net Outflows Accelerating' → 'Institutional Stance Changes' → 'Complete Collapse in Investor Sentiment'.

in 2025, Bitcoin is fully embedded in the traditional finance (TradFi) system, and as a result, the Fed's liquidity policy and Nasdaq tech stock momentum have a much more direct impact on price than in past four-year halving cycles. the current decline is the inevitable result of these two key drivers turning off simultaneously.

section 2: Frozen Investor Sentiment: 'Extreme Fear' and Missing Buying Power

2-1. Analyzing the Fear & Greed Index

the current market sentiment is beyond 'fear' and is at the level of 'extreme fear'. The Fear & Greed Index on CoinMarketCap (CMC) is at 20, while the index on Alternative.me is at 25.

entering the 'Extreme Fear' zone, where the index ranges from 0-24, means that market participants are selling based on fear rather than rational judgment.

historically, the Extreme Fear zone has been interpreted as a signal of a short- to medium-term bottom in the market. it suggests that the current distress has peaked, and could be an opportunity for contrarians to buy on the dip. however, the other red flags are too clear for us to jump the gun and call a bottom based on this indicator alone.

2-2. Analyzing the history of crypto buy recommendation scores

the "Buy Recommendation Score" history, reconstructed based on the data provided, provides a high-resolution view of how market sentiment has collapsed over the past 24 hours.

table: Cryptocurrency Buy Recommendation Score History (November 6 - November 7)

hour buy Recommendation Score core Reason nov. 6, 2025 09:43 2.21 (Strong Buy) institutional Buying and Altcoin Inflows nov 06, 2025, 16:33 -1.83 (Strong Sell) ETF outflows, hacking and other negative factors dominate 2025-11-06 20:34 -1.44 (Sell) Large ETF outflows and sell-off spread 2025-11-06 23:44 -0.53 (Sell) stablecoin Regulation Tightens, ETF Outflows 2025-11-07 00:47 0.62 (Weak Buy) russian buying, Ripple cooperation, and other good news 2025-11-07 02:50 0.69 (Weak Buy) bitcoin defends $100k, optimism 2025-11-07 05:44 -0.97 (Sell) cashwood Down, Blackrock Sells, Overall Bearishness

this timeline shows the entire process of the $100K support breakdown.

  1. november 6th (09:43 AM): the market was still positive with a "strong buy" score of +2.21.

  2. afternoon of Nov. 6 (16:33-20:34): The market reversed to the downside, with a vertical drop in score to -1.83 and a sharp cooling in sentiment, as the key bad news of "ETF outflows" became known to the market.

  3. dawn, November 7 (00:47 to 02:50): Desperate 'defensive buying' around the $100k support level pushes the score back up to 0.69, proving how strong a psychological support level $100k was.

  4. november 7th (05:44 AM): The final blow came. as the news of Cash Wood and BlackRock selling was confirmed, the score plummeted from +0.69 to -0.97. The $100K support was completely broken with this 'institutional confirmation kill'.

section 3: Technical Analysis (TA): all Support Lines Have Collapsed

3-1. Bitcoin (BTC) chart: 'Strong Sell' signal

from a technical perspective, the market is currently in a clear downtrend. a 'Strong Sell' signal is dominant on all major timeframes: Daily, Weekly, and Hourly.

  • moving Average Lines (MA): both the simple (SMA) and exponential (EMA) 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving average lines are sending 'Sell' signals.this is the strongest bearish signal, meaning that the short-term, medium-term, and long-term trends have all turned downward.

  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): the 14-day RSI is 39.916 which is falling from the neutral line of less than 50. this indicates that selling pressure is completely overwhelming buying pressure. it hasn't yet entered the "oversold" zone below 30, suggesting that further downside may remain.

  • MACD: The 'sell' signal is continuing and widening in negative (-) territory.

  • bollinger Bands: downside volatility is exploding as the price strongly breaks through the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands.

3-2. Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) Technical Analysis

the situation is the same for the altcoin bosses. both Ethereum and Ripple are showing 'strong sell' signals on all timeframes.

  • ethereum (ETH): all 12 moving averages are in a 'sell' state, and the RSI is 39.09, indicating a strong sell-off.the $3,300 support level has been broken.

  • ripple (XRP): eleven out of 12 moving averages are showing 'sell' signals, and the RSI is bearish at 43.5.it is especially concerning that the price has broken below the long-term trend line at the 200-day moving average ($2.43) the support zone of $2.25 to $2.31 is now under threat, and if it breaks, the next support will be at the $2.00 or $1.77 level.

3-3. Technical analysis conclusion: where is the next support?

now that the $100,000 (upbeat $150 million) support has been broken, the market is moving towards the next support levels.

  • primary support (CME gap): $92,000

    the next common target for technical analysts is the "CME Futures Gap" at the $92,000 level.8 The CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) futures market is closed on weekends, creating a gap in price from the spot market, and Bitcoin price has historically shown a strong tendency to fill this gap.

  • secondary support (on-chain price): $88,500

    the "Active Investors' Realized Price" (AIRP), based on the on-chain data discussed in the next section, is hovering around $88,500.5

  • key Resistance: $112,500

    even if there is a technical bounce, the immediate priority is to retake $112,500 (short-term holder cost), which has now turned into a strong resistance level.

section 4: On-Chain Deep Dive: Smart Money Exodus

beyond the technical charts, the actual data on the blockchain (on-chain) clearly shows why this drop is so severe.

4-1. Glassnode Data: LTH's Unusual Sell-off and STH's Capitulation

short-term holder (STH) cost collapse: $112,500

the most devastating signal was Bitcoin's price breaking below the $112,500 "Short-Term Holder (STH) cost" level.5 STHs are typically holders of less than six months, meaning investors who have entered the market relatively recently.

the breakdown of this support level means that all investors who bought Bitcoin in the last six months have entered the loss zone. their average Cost Basis was a strong support line, but the breakdown of this line triggered a massive panic cell and 'Capitulation'

long-Term Holders (LTH) Betrayal: 'Sell the Bear Market'

this is the most worrisome on-chain signal in this dip. since July 2025, the volume of 'Long-Term Holders' (LTH), those who have held Bitcoin for more than 6 months, has dropped by approximately 300,000 BTC

historically, LTH, or "smart money," has realized profits by selling during "strength" periods, when prices are rising, but now the opposite is true. they are selling in a 'Weakness' market, where prices are falling and moving sideways. this suggests that even LTH is pessimistic about the future of the market and is participating in a 'sell in' or 'stop loss'. it is an indicator that the market's fundamental stamina is extremely exhausted.

4-2. ETFs and whales: the obvious sellers

ETF flows: from dynamo to anchor

the biggest driver of the bull market - institutional money inflows - has now reversed into the biggest pressure driving the pullback. u.S. spot ETFs have seen sustained net outflows for the past two weeks, ranging from a daily minimum of -$150 million to a daily maximum of -$700 million.5 As of November 6, ETFs have seen six consecutive days of net outflows.

whale behavior: ready to sell

whales holding more than 1,000 BTC are also consistently seen depositing Bitcoin into exchanges.17 In on-chain analysis, whale deposits into exchanges are interpreted as the most classic sign of preparing for a potential sell-off.

4-3. MVRV Ratio: The Only Sign of Hope (Backwards Thinking)

the only positive on-chain signal amidst the bleak metrics is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. MVRV is Bitcoin's market capitalization divided by its realized value (the value of the coin when it last moved), and it determines whether the market is overvalued or undervalued.

currently, the MVRV ratio has entered the historic "undervalued" or "opportunity" zone.

It seems like a contradiction that LTH is selling off (pessimistic momentum) and MVRV is undervalued (optimistic valuation), but to interpret this, the selling of LTH indicates that the current downward momentumis extremely pessimistic, while the undervaluation of MVRV indicates that the current priceis approaching the historical bottom zone.

in conclusion, we are in a panic phase where 'momentum' dominates the market over 'value'. MVRV is not saying that we are at a "bottom" right now, but rather that we have entered a " bottom-eligibleprice range". this may be a valid signal for a mid- to long-term split-buy strategist, but it's not enough to reverse the short-term downtrend.

section 5: Derivatives market analysis: $80,000 puts foreshadow further decline

derivatives markets provide even more blatant data about current fears and the path forward.

5-1. Leveraged Liquidations and Funding Ratios

massive Long Squeeze

over the past 24 hours, the market's excessive "bubble of bullish bets" has been deflated. Approximately $1.2 billion in leveraged long positions have been forced to liquidate.20 The meme coin market has also been overheated, with the long liquidation rate for Dogecoin jumping 12,000%. This is a painful process, but a necessary liquidation process for the market to establish a healthy bottom.

funding Rate

the Funding Rate for Bitcoin perpetual futures is near zero or has turned negative. a negative funding rate means that short (bearish) position holders are paying interest to long (bullish) position holders. this shows that the majority of market participants are betting on a decline. at the same time, this can also be a recipe for a short squeeze, which occurs when excessive short positions build up, forcing short positions to be liquidated on even the slightest bit of good news.

5-2. Options Market: Smart Money Prepares for $80,000

the options market shows how the "smart money" is hedging their bets on the current situation.

put/Call Ratio (Put/Call Ratio)

the put/call premium ratio hit 2.61, meaning that investors are paying more than 2.6 times as much to buy a put option (betting on a decline) as a call option (betting on an increase). it means that the market values downside risk very highly and is willing to pay an expensive premium for it.

[Core] Open Interest Analysis: The $80,000 Warning

the clearest warning from the derivatives market is in the open interest (OI) data. based on Bitcoin options expiring on November 28, the Highest Open Interest is concentrated in the $80,000 strike put.

this shows that the 'smart money', including institutions, don't trust the $100k support and are actively buying insurance (buying puts), seeing a furtherdecline to $80,000 acrossthe CME gap of $92k as a 'realistic scenario'. this is clear evidence of hedging to defend a large portfolio, not mere speculation.

section 6: [Featured] Soaring Alone in a Bear Market: The Rediscovery of BAT and GLM

while Bitcoin (-3.19%) and Ethereum (-3.87%) crashed in synchronization with the global macroeconomy, there was a distinct divergence in the upbeat market, with some altcoins surging.

this shows that funds are not leaving the crypto market altogether, but are movingto assets with a "specific narrative" that is independent of the market's overall flow (beta).

6-1. Basic Attention Token (BAT): +12.28% surge

on the Upbit KRW market, Basic Attention Token (BAT) surged +12.28% to 320 KRW. This lone gain is based on clear fundamentals.

  1. fundamental growth: The Brave browser, which uses BAT tokens as its reward system, has surpassed 190 millionmonthly active users (MAUs).

  2. expanding ecosystem: BAT Roadmap 3.0 goes live in 2025, expanding multi-chain support, combining AI utilities, creator rewards programs, and more.

The rise of BAT is analyzed as a revaluation based on the clear fundamentals of "100 million users" and the future roadmap of "Rewards 3.0".

6-2. Golem (GLM): +5.15% up

golem (GLM) also gained +5.15% on the upbeat to 286 KRW. golem's rise is based on the 'AI/DePIN' narrative, which is currently the strongest theme in the market.

  1. AI / DePIN narrative: Golem is a "decentralized computing" project that shares individuals' idle computing power, making it a leading AI and DePIN (decentralized physical infrastructure network) themed coin.

  2. theme rotation: As global equity markets worry about a "centralized AI" (e.g., Nvidia) bubble, a balloon effect is occurring, with funds flowing into blockchain-based "decentralized AI/DePIN" projects.

The rise of GLM clearly illustrates the concentration of funds into the 'AI/DePIN' narrative, which is the only strong theme to emerge from the market crash.

section 7: Overall Conclusions and November Market Outlook

7-1. Summary: 3 Downward Drivers and 3 Support Levels

the current market crash is being driven by three key drivers and is headed towards three downside targets.

  • top 3 Downside Drivers (Confirmed):

    1. global Risk-Off: Risk-off due to AI bubble concerns and Fed tightening.

    2. net selling by institutions and ETFs: institutional outflows represented by Cashwood, BlackRock and large net outflows from ETFs.

    3. Long-term holder (LTH) selling: smart money selling in an unusual "bear market" and maximizing market fatigue.

  • top 3 downside targets (testing imminent):

    1. $92,000: CME futures gap.

    2. 88,500: On-chain active investor realized price.

    3. 80,000: The price point where the derivatives market's largest open interest (OI) clusters.

7-2. Short and Medium-Term Market Outlook

  • short-term outlook (very negative): The $100,000 support level has been broken, and all technical, on-chain, and derivatives indicators are pointing to further declines. a move to fill the $92,000 CME gap is very likely. if the $80,000 puts materialize, the sell-off will be extreme and the market could fall into a deep downtrend.

  • medium-term outlook (neutral / looking for lows): positive signs are that the market is entering 'oversold' territory: $1.2 billion of leverage has been liquidated, the Fear Greed Index is at 'extreme fear' and MVRV is in the 'opportunity zone' which means that the conditions for a bottomare painfully setting in.

  • bullish reversal scenario: A true trend reversal is only possible when $112,500 (STH cost) is recaptured and the ETF switches to sustained net inflows. Until then, the possibility that any technical bounce is a temporary 'dead cat bounce' or 'short squeeze' should be kept in the forefront of your mind.

7-3. Investment strategy suggestions

  1. conservative view (wait-and-see): We are in the "extreme fear" zone, and any hasty buying or "jumping on the bandwagon" is very risky. it is not too late to react after confirming support in the $92,000-$88,500 range.

  2. buying reverse split (medium to long term): MVRV and the Fear and Greed Index based on the MVRV and the Fear and Greed Index, you can start buying at the historical lows. however, be sure to keep your capital plan open to the possibility of further declines to the $80,000 level.

  3. narrative trading (short-term): As seen in the case of BAT and GLM, money is moving in, not out of the market. there are still opportunities for short-term trades centered around altcoins with clear fundamentals like "100 million users" or individual themes like "AI/DePIN," rather than following Bitcoin's direction (beta).